✪✪✪ Fertility Transition Theory

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Fertility Transition Theory



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Theories of Fertility

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Some say fertility levels decrease during this stage while others hypothesize that they increase. Rates are expected to increase populations in Mexico, India and the U. Birth and death rates largely plateaued in most developed nations in the late s. There is no prescribed time within which these stages should or must take place to fit the model. Some countries, like Brazil and China, have moved through them quickly due to rapid economic changes within their borders. Other countries may languish in Stage 2 for a much longer period due to development challenges and diseases like AIDS. Additionally, other factors not considered in the DTM can affect the population. These challenges, linked to configurations of population and the dynamics of distribution, inevitably raise the issue of town and country planning.

The most recent census figures show that an outpouring of the urban population means that fewer rural areas are continuing to register a negative migratory flow — two-thirds of rural communities have shown some since The spatial demographic expansion of large cities amplifies the process of peri-urbanization yet is also accompanied by movement of selective residential flow, social selection, and sociospatial segregation based on income. McNicoll examines the common features behind the striking changes in health and fertility in East and Southeast Asia in the s—s, focusing on seven countries: Taiwan and South Korea "tiger" economies , Thailand, Malaysia, and Indonesia "second wave" countries , and China and Vietnam "market-Leninist" economies.

Demographic change can be seen as a byproduct of social and economic development together with, in some cases, strong governmental pressures. The transition sequence entailed the establishment of an effective, typically authoritarian, system of local administration, providing a framework for promotion and service delivery in health, education, and family planning. Subsequent economic liberalization offered new opportunities for upward mobility — and risks of backsliding —, accompanied by the erosion of social capital and the breakdown or privatization of service programs.

As of , India is in the later half of the third stage of the demographic transition, with a population of 1. The present demographic transition stage of India along with its higher population base will yield a rich demographic dividend in future decades. Cha analyzes a panel data set to explore how industrial revolution, demographic transition, and human capital accumulation interacted in Korea from to Income growth and public investment in health caused mortality to fall, which suppressed fertility and promoted education.

Industrialization, skill premium, and closing gender wage gap further induced parents to opt for child quality. Expanding demand for education was accommodated by an active public school building program. The interwar agricultural depression aggravated traditional income inequality, raising fertility and impeding the spread of mass schooling. Landlordism collapsed in the wake of de-colonization, and the consequent reduction in inequality accelerated human and physical capital accumulation, hence leading to growth in South Korea. Campbell has studied the demography of 19th-century Madagascar in the light of demographic transition theory.

Both supporters and critics of the theory hold to an intrinsic opposition between human and "natural" factors, such as climate, famine, and disease, influencing demography. They also suppose a sharp chronological divide between the precolonial and colonial eras, arguing that whereas "natural" demographic influences were of greater importance in the former period, human factors predominated thereafter. Campbell argues that in 19th-century Madagascar the human factor, in the form of the Merina state , was the predominant demographic influence.

However, the impact of the state was felt through natural forces, and it varied over time. In the late 18th and early 19th centuries Merina state policies stimulated agricultural production, which helped to create a larger and healthier population and laid the foundation for Merina military and economic expansion within Madagascar. From , the cost of such expansionism led the state to increase its exploitation of forced labor at the expense of agricultural production and thus transformed it into a negative demographic force. Infertility and infant mortality, which were probably more significant influences on overall population levels than the adult mortality rate, increased from due to disease, malnutrition, and stress, all of which stemmed from state forced labor policies.

Available estimates indicate little if any population growth for Madagascar between and The demographic "crisis" in Africa, ascribed by critics of the demographic transition theory to the colonial era, stemmed in Madagascar from the policies of the imperial Merina regime, which in this sense formed a link to the French regime of the colonial era. Campbell thus questions the underlying assumptions governing the debate about historical demography in Africa and suggests that the demographic impact of political forces be reevaluated in terms of their changing interaction with "natural" demographic influences.

Russia entered stage two of the transition in the 18th century, simultaneously with the rest of Europe, though the effect of transition remained limited to a modest decline in death rates and steady population growth. The population of Russia nearly quadrupled during the 19th century, from 30 million to million, and continued to grow until the First World War and the turmoil that followed. In the s and s, Russia underwent a unique demographic transition; observers call it a "demographic catastrophe": the number of deaths exceeded the number of births, life expectancy fell sharply especially for males and the number of suicides increased. This shift resulted from technological progress. A sixfold increase in real wages made children more expensive in terms of forgone opportunities to work and increases in agricultural productivity reduced rural demand for labor, a substantial portion of which traditionally had been performed by children in farm families.

A simplification of the DTM theory proposes an initial decline in mortality followed by a later drop in fertility. The changing demographics of the U. Beginning around , there was a sharp fertility decline; at this time, an average woman usually produced seven births per lifetime, but by this number had dropped to nearly four. A mortality decline was not observed in the U. However, this late decline occurred from a very low initial level. During the 17th and 18th centuries, crude death rates in much of colonial North America ranged from 15 to 25 deaths per residents per year [41] [42] levels of up to 40 per being typical during stages one and two.

Life expectancy at birth was on the order of 40 and, in some places, reached 50, and a resident of 18th century Philadelphia who reached age 20 could have expected, on average, additional 40 years of life. This phenomenon is explained by the pattern of colonization of the United States. Sparsely populated interior of the country allowed ample room to accommodate all the "excess" people, counteracting mechanisms spread of communicable diseases due to overcrowding, low real wages and insufficient calories per capita due to the limited amount of available agricultural land which led to high mortality in the Old World.

With low mortality but stage 1 birth rates, the United States necessarily experienced exponential population growth from less than 4 million people in , to 23 million in , to 76 million in The only area where this pattern did not hold was the American South. High prevalence of deadly endemic diseases such as malaria kept mortality as high as 45—50 per residents per year in 18th century North Carolina. In New Orleans , mortality remained so high mainly due to yellow fever that the city was characterized as the "death capital of the United States" — at the level of 50 per population or higher — well into the second half of the 19th century.

Today, the U. Specifically, birth rates stand at 14 per per year and death rates at 8 per per year. It must be remembered that the DTM is only a model and cannot necessarily predict the future. It does however give an indication of what the future birth and death rates may be for an underdeveloped country, together with the total population size. Most particularly, of course, the DTM makes no comment on change in population due to migration. It is not necessarily applicable at very high levels of development.

Some trends in waterborne bacterial infant mortality are also disturbing in countries like Malawi , Sudan and Nigeria ; for example, progress in the DTM clearly arrested and reversed between and DTM assumes that population changes are induced by industrial changes and increased wealth, without taking into account the role of social change in determining birth rates, e. In recent decades more work has been done on developing the social mechanisms behind it. DTM assumes that the birth rate is independent of the death rate. Nevertheless, demographers maintain that there is no historical evidence for society-wide fertility rates rising significantly after high mortality events. Notably, some historic populations have taken many years to replace lives after events such as the Black Death.

Some have claimed that DTM does not explain the early fertility declines in much of Asia in the second half of the 20th century or the delays in fertility decline in parts of the Middle East. Nevertheless, the demographer John C Caldwell has suggested that the reason for the rapid decline in fertility in some developing countries compared to Western Europe, the United States, Canada, Australia and New Zealand is mainly due to government programs and a massive investment in education both by governments and parents.

Combined with the sexual revolution and the increased role of women in society and the workforce the resulting changes have profoundly affected the demographics of industrialized countries resulting in a sub-replacement fertility level. The changes, increased numbers of women choosing to not marry or have children, increased cohabitation outside marriage, increased childbearing by single mothers, increased participation by women in higher education and professional careers, and other changes are associated with increased individualism and autonomy, particularly of women.

Motivations have changed from traditional and economic ones to those of self-realization. In , Nicholas Eberstadt, political economist at the American Enterprise Institute in Washington, described the Second Demographic Transition as one in which "long, stable marriages are out, and divorce or separation are in, along with serial cohabitation and increasingly contingent liaisons. From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia. Changes in birth and death rates. This article needs additional citations for verification. Relevant discussion may be found on the talk page. Please help improve this article by adding citations to reliable sources.

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